Improving Satellite Based Rainfall Estimates for Flood Forecasting in Data Scarce Tropical Watersheds

Arifin Arifin; Asikin Muchtar

doi:10.55927/fjas.v5i10.143

Authors

Arifin Arifin Universitas Achmad Yani Banjarmasin
Asikin Muchtar Universitas Indonesia Timur

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55927/fjas.v5i10.143

Keywords:

GPM-IMERG, Extreme Rainfall, Bias Correction, Flood Simulation, Data-Scarce Watersheds

Abstract

Satellite rainfall estimates support flood analysis in tropical watersheds where ground observations are limited, yet biases during intense rainfall can distort simulated flood peaks. This study assesses whether event-focused bias correction improves GPM-IMERG V07 estimates and flood simulation in a data-scarce Indonesian watershed. Daily satellite rainfall, observations from four rain gauges, and streamflow records for 2019–2025 are compared using uncorrected IMERG, conventional bias correction, and event-focused correction. Rainfall accuracy is evaluated using RMSE, PBIAS, and critical success index, while HEC-HMS simulations are assessed using Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and peak-discharge error. Gauge-reduction experiments examine performance under limited monitoring. This framework identifies when rainfall correction offers meaningful benefits for flood simulation.

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